The reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies that the international crude oil market has generally fluctuated and increased in recent years. On September 29, the domestic retail price limit for refined oil products will usher in a “two consecutive rises”, or about 130 yuan/ton.
Since the domestic refined oil price increase on September 15, the international crude oil market has been mixed. Recently, as Iranian officials claimed that if the United States withdraws from the nuclear agreement and the country can immediately resume nuclear activities when necessary, the market risk aversion is detonated, driving oil prices to jump sharply. As a result of the review by the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), the compliance of the oil-producing countries to the production reduction agreement rose to a maximum of 116% during the year in August, and the data released by Baker Hughes showed that the number of active drilling in the United States continued to decrease. It has brought more favorable support to the crude oil market. However, the US shale oil will continue to increase production, fuel efficiency and electric vehicles will increase the demand for gasoline in the United States. These negative factors affect the market. Under the multi-party news game, the crude oil futures market fluctuated slightly, but the overall price was higher.
As of September 23, Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures for November delivery rose 0.11 US dollars, or 0.22%, to 50.66 US dollars / barrel, a record high of four months, up 0.4% last week; Brent 11 Crude oil futures for the month also closed up by 0.43 US dollars, or 0.76%, to 56.86 US dollars / barrel, which rose about 2.2% this week, rising for four consecutive weeks.
Under this, the rate of change in crude oil extends in the positive range. According to the calculation of Jinlian, as of the sixth working day of September 25, the average price of reference crude oil is 53.83 US dollars / barrel, the rate of change is 3.62%, corresponding to the current round of gasoline and diesel may be raised 135 yuan / ton, Zhuo Chuang Information The measured rate of change in crude oil is 3.98%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is expected to increase by 137 yuan/ton.
Since the beginning of this pricing cycle, the international crude oil futures market has generally fluctuated and the overall rate of crude oil change is still at a high level. The market bullish atmosphere is getting stronger. The current domestic oil price increase is likely to be higher, or the 'two consecutive rises' can be achieved. Zhuo Xin Information Oil Products analyst Zhang Yixin believes.
Jin Lianchuang analyst Han Cong also judged that the international market will continue to fluctuate in the high range, and the current retail price (September 29) is not suspense. Benefiting from the demand for stocking before the holiday, the main domestic sales pressure is not large this month. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will remain at a high level this week, and some units that have completed sales tasks ahead of schedule may continue to push up.
Jin Lianchuang analyst Li Yang believes that in the fourth quarter, with the end of the summer demand season, international crude oil prices or pressures will fluctuate and fall, but the reduction of production in the later oil-producing countries is expected to continue to expand and the demand for heating oil in winter will be boosted. Crude oil may regain its upward trend. From the news point of view, there is little difference between the fourth quarter and the third quarter. As for the domestic refined oil market, with the end of the peak season of “Golden September and Silver 10”, the consumption of refined oil products will gradually fade, which will make it difficult for the refined oil market to support.

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