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In the first half of 2007, the tin market experienced intense activity due to a supply shortage. Prices continued the upward trend from the fourth quarter of 2006, surging from $10,000 to $15,000 per ton, and even reaching a 29-year high of $15,200 per ton. The price increase began in the second half of 2006, with supply constraints being the primary driver. The Indonesian government's efforts to regulate mines and smelters played a crucial role in this situation.
As the second half of the year approached, some smelters in Indonesia resumed operations, and China saw a sharp rise in refined tin production, which improved supply conditions. However, uncertainty remained regarding policies. Would Indonesian smelters reach stable production levels? Would China impose export tariffs? How would changes in China’s tax rebate policies affect the market? These factors could significantly influence global supply dynamics.
Looking at price trends, tin prices maintained strong growth in the first half of 2007, continuing the momentum from late 2006. Prices rose almost linearly in January and February, then slowed down in March and April. From mid-May to June, the price stabilized around $14,000 per ton, showing some adjustment.
For LME three-month tin, the highest price reached $15,200 per ton on April 18, while the lowest was $9,850 per ton on January 9. The average price for the period was $13,295.48 per ton, up 64.38% compared to the same period in 2006. The spot price peaked at $14,700 per ton on April 17, with an average of $13,407.7 per ton, a 66.29% increase over the previous year.
Domestic prices also rose steadily during the first half of 2007, increasing from below 90,000 yuan per ton at the start of the year to a peak of 11,500 yuan in April—a 30% increase. However, domestic prices did not match the strength of international prices. The average domestic price was 102,583.3 yuan per ton, up 27.48% year-on-year.
High tin prices stimulated significant production increases in China, especially in recycled tin. According to the China Nonferrous Metals Association, tin production from January to May 2007 rose by 13.48% to 60,716 tons. Provinces like Jiangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan saw double-digit growth, with Jiangxi's production jumping 28.55% to 2,157 tons, and Yunnan’s rising 11.64% to 35,502 tons.
Despite a slight decline in tin concentrate output, refined tin production increased significantly, with estimates suggesting that 25% of refined tin came from recycled materials. This led to a higher estimate of tin concentrate production at 47,404 tons.
China’s tin consumption grew but at a slower pace, influenced by a stronger yuan and reduced export competitiveness. The electronics sector still expanded, but solder demand growth slowed. Meanwhile, tinplate consumption increased due to production shifts from Europe and South Korea to China, with output rising 10.6% in the first five months of the year.
The tin chemical industry faced challenges due to cost pressures, leading to production cuts in some regions. However, certain producers in Shandong managed to maintain output, partially offsetting the decline.
Export volumes of tin ingots surged, with exports reaching 13,536.708 tons from January to May—up 74.82% year-on-year. With international prices higher than domestic ones, Chinese companies capitalized on profit margins, using up their quotas early. However, expectations suggest a possible slowdown in the second half due to quota limits and potential domestic price increases.
Imports of tin ingots fell sharply, mainly due to Indonesia’s regulatory changes. From January to May, imports totaled just 2,206.387 tons, down 75.23% year-on-year. Net exports reached 12,788.39 tons, far exceeding levels from 2005 and 2006.
Looking ahead, Indonesia’s policy adjustments are largely complete, and production is expected to recover, though with limited growth. Yunnan Tin’s new project in Indonesia is set to start in August, adding several hundred tons monthly. In China, production is likely to continue rising, but the implementation of the new tax rebate policy in July may cause market adjustments. Smelters may face raw material shortages as procurement channels shift, potentially leading to production cuts.
Overall, the tin market in 2007 is expected to face a supply gap of about 20,000 tons. The author believes that the price surge is not yet over and that a further rise could occur in the second half of the year, pushing prices to new highs.
October 11, 2025