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In the first half of 2007, the tin market experienced a surge driven by supply constraints. Prices continued to rise from the fourth quarter of 2006, climbing from $10,000 to $15,000 per ton, eventually hitting a 29-year high of $15,200. This sharp increase was largely fueled by supply-side factors, with Indonesia playing a central role in the market dynamics due to its efforts to regulate mines and smelters.
As the second half of the year approached, some Indonesian smelters resumed operations, and Chinese refined tin production saw a significant boost, leading to improved supply conditions. However, uncertainty remained regarding key policy developments. Would Indonesian smelters reach stable production levels? Would China impose export tariffs? How would changes in China’s welfare factory tax rebate policies affect the market? These questions had the potential to significantly impact global tin supply.
Looking at price trends, the tin market maintained strong growth in the first half of 2007, continuing the upward trend from late 2006. Prices rose almost linearly in January and February, but the momentum slowed in March and April. From mid-May through June, prices stabilized around $14,000 per ton, showing signs of adjustment.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin price reached a peak of $15,200 on April 18, while the lowest point was $9,850 on January 9. The average price for the period was $13,295.48, up 64.38% compared to the same period in 2006. Spot prices also showed similar trends, with an average of $13,407.70, reflecting a 66.29% increase.
Domestically, tin prices in China rose steadily, starting below 90,000 yuan per ton and peaking at 11,500 yuan in April—an increase of about 30%. However, domestic prices did not match the intensity of international price movements. The average domestic price for the first half of 2007 was 102,583.3 yuan per ton, up 27.48% year-on-year.
High tin prices stimulated a substantial increase in Chinese production, particularly in recycled tin. According to the China Nonferrous Metals Association, tin output from January to May 2007 rose by 13.48% to 60,716 tons. Provinces like Jiangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan saw double-digit growth, with Jiangxi’s production increasing by 28.55% to 2,157 tons, and Yunnan’s reaching 35,502 tons.
Despite a slight decline in tin concentrate output, refined tin production increased significantly, with estimates suggesting that 25% of refined tin came from recycled materials. This led to a higher estimated tin concentrate production of 47,404 tons.
China's tin consumption grew steadily, though at a slightly slower pace. The electronics sector remained a major driver, but rising RMB exchange rates weakened China’s export competitiveness, affecting solder demand. Meanwhile, increased tinplate production, especially due to shifts from Europe and South Korea, boosted tin usage in this sector.
The tin chemical industry faced challenges due to cost pressures and competition. While some producers in Shandong reduced or halted operations, others in Yunxi and Huaxi maintained normal production, partially offsetting the decline.
China’s tin ingot exports surged in the first half of 2007, with exports reaching 13,536.708 tons—a 74.82% increase year-on-year. With international prices higher than domestic ones, exports became highly profitable. However, expectations for the second half suggested a possible slowdown due to export quotas and stronger domestic prices.
Imports of tin ingots fell sharply, largely due to Indonesia’s export restrictions. From January to May, imports totaled just 2,206.387 tons, down 75.23% year-on-year. Net exports reached 12,788.39 tons, far exceeding previous years.
Looking ahead, Indonesia’s regulatory adjustments were nearing completion, and production was expected to recover, albeit modestly. Meanwhile, China’s production was likely to continue growing, but new tax rebate policies could cause market disruptions. Smelters may face raw material shortages, leading to potential production cuts.
Overall, the tin market in 2007 was expected to face a shortage of around 20,000 tons. The author believed that the price rally was far from over, and there could still be a significant upward move in the second half of the year, potentially reaching new highs.
October 11, 2025