Electric car fever: the market does not welcome car prices have shaken

At the 2011 Global Automotive Forum, the global electric vehicle survey report released by Deloitte, the famous survey and consulting company, casts a shadow over the development prospects of electric vehicles. Surveys show that consumers in developed countries are significantly less interested in electric vehicles than in developing countries. For example, China's potential consumers of electric vehicles have reached 50%, India has reached 59%, but the United States has only 12%, Japan is even lower, only 4%.

The survey also showed that the majority of consumers in the world are expected to have 380 to 420 kilometers of electric vehicle's driving range, but at present, most electric vehicles can only reach 160 kilometers; the charging time for electric vehicles is expected to be two hours, but most electric vehicles Charging time exceeds 4 hours. Most consumers are reluctant to pay for high prices for electric vehicles. With the increasing understanding of electric vehicles, consumers not only consider driving range, charging convenience and charging costs when choosing electric vehicles, but also consider factors such as maintenance costs, residual value, and total cost of ownership. "The higher the fuel efficiency of traditional internal combustion engines, the less consumer interest in electric vehicles," said one person at Deloitte.

Garel Rhys, director of the automotive industry research center at Cardiff University Business School in the United Kingdom, said: “The car battery was invented in 1984, but it has not yet been realized in the electric car industry. Ford once said that the real challenge in the future lies in the battery, but now We have not yet achieved this transformation. In the UK, we are developing some electric vehicles, but they are very expensive and require many stimulus packages. The industrialization of electric vehicles will eventually come, but the market is not yet ready."

Garel Rhys believes that even by 2030 it may not see the huge demand for hybrid cars. At present, it seems that there is no point in talking about new energy technologies. It depends on the commercial nature of the products and whether these products are really needed. Can these cars have good sales?

Honda, an executive director of Honda, has a similar view. He believes that the Chinese government has introduced various incentive policies for new energy vehicles. This is a very good trend, but there are still many problems in the objective environment, such as price, mileage, and battery. Security and other issues. Therefore, it is not possible for new energy vehicles to replace traditional automobiles on a large scale, but they can achieve environmental protection and profitability in a limited distance.

From a global perspective, the electric car fever has been the consensus of the industry. This year's Shanghai Auto Show, Daimler-Benz global president, said Ze Che, is expected in the next 10 years, the battery technology of electric vehicles is difficult to achieve a breakthrough. Mazda (China) Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. Chairman Akira Yamada also said that he is not yet clear when the electric vehicle battery technology will achieve a breakthrough, based on this status, Mazda is currently focusing on the development of fuel-efficient traditional engine technology.

However, some people are optimistic about the prospects of domestic electric vehicles. General Motors Holdings's global CEO Murphy said that by 2020 China will become the largest market for new energy vehicles. Zuo Yanan, chairman of JAC, believes that new energy vehicles will have significant development in the next five years.

In the face of bleak sales of electric vehicles, policy-making departments and new energy vehicle manufacturers have become more calm. According to Zhan Yusong, deputy dean of the Chang'an Automobile Research Institute, at the present stage and even after 5 years and 10 years, the traditional automobile's internal combustion engine efficiency can still dominate the market. Experts of China Automobile Association predict that pure electric vehicles will still be in the preparatory period for industrialization in the next 10 years, and energy-saving vehicles represented by hybrid power will become the mainstream.

For the development strategy of new energy vehicles. Zhang Xiaojun, vice president of the Federation of Machinery Industry, believes that it is necessary to clarify three points: First, engaging in new energy vehicles is a strategic plan, not an expedient measure; second, new energy vehicles must be technologically innovative, and must have original innovation; The third is to understand the gradual and systematic nature of new energy vehicles. "If all of Baodu is bet on third-generation lithium batteries, new energy vehicles will be greatly troubled. Therefore, we must study the fourth generation of batteries, which is more advanced than lead batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium-ion batteries ."

At the forum, Zhang Xiangmu, director of the Ministry of Industry and Equipment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the current planning for the new energy automobile industry has been submitted to the State Council and will be finalized by relevant leaders of the State Council. Zhang Xiaokai believes that when it comes to the introduction of new energy vehicles and new energy vehicle industry planning, we should make it clear that the choice of which technology path should not be determined by the government, but rather to the market.

“Whether it is a company-launched electric vehicle or a government-approved electric vehicle policy, it should be more rational and see the market reality, and it cannot be done overnight.” Some insiders believe that the current electric vehicle subsidies are as high as 60,000 yuan, but it is still lacking in interest. This shows that government subsidies are not the fundamental way to develop electric vehicles. Breaking through electric vehicle technologies is the key. Policy support should be tilted to overcome the technical difficulties of electric vehicles.