Overspending the auto market collapse after the hot sale in January

The oversight of overcapacity still lingers, and the desolation of the auto market in the first two months of 2011 has left people with a long cold heart. As Beijing and other places began to adopt the new car total control policy, the prediction that the auto market is about to collapse will begin to spread like SARS.

In the Beijing Asian Games Village Automobile Exchange Market, known as the "China's auto market barometer," only about 2,700 vehicles were sold in January, and only 8 were sold during the Spring Festival, both of which fell to the lowest level in the same period in history. In mid-February, sales of many 4S stores in Beijing have not yet reached the 10 mark. In an interview with the Beijing auto market, reporters found that compared with previous years, fewer people saw car purchases. Some 4S stores simply closed their doors during the Spring Festival, but after the Spring Festival holiday, most auto showrooms were still deserted.

Guangzhou, Chengdu and other places are roughly the same as the Beijing auto market, showing a cool start, and complementing the cool sales, it is highly contagious panic. Among them, the dealer's anxiety is more serious. After a blowout of last year's car consumption encouragement policy, Beijing also suffered a limited car at the beginning of this year, and the ice and the fire alternated between the Year of the Tiger and the rabbit. Most dealers believe that Beijing will have a demonstration effect, guiding other cities into the turning point of limited cars.

In stark contrast to the monthly reports of automakers, in January, almost every manufacturer had a hot sale, and some brands also created the best sales performance in January. According to the statistics released by the passenger vehicle association, in January, the output of domestic narrow passenger vehicles was 1,168,300, of which 980,400 were cars, 49,400 MPVs, and 135,500 SUVs; the retail volume was 1,152,300; Decline by 9%. Among them, Shanghai General Motors, Shanghai Volkswagen, and FAW-Volkswagen ranked first in the sales of 131,944, and 100,108, respectively, and 91,288. Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Nissan ranked fourth and fifth with 68,811 and 63,363 respectively. .

Looking at sales figures only, January’s results are not pessimistic. However, careful analysis, this sales is watery. Deputy Secretary-General of Passenger Vehicles Association Yang Zaiyu believes: "Although the passenger vehicle market was once again set a new high in January, and this record can be maintained for at least one year, this is only the aftermath of the extremely hot car market at the end of last year. It's the last madness, not the market's good character."

On January 26th, Beijing Yaohao produced the first batch of 17,600 purchase targets. By February 10th, the city only achieved 2,000 vehicles through the Yaohao, which accounted for 11% of the 17,600 vehicles in January, and no purchases occurred. peak. It is worth mentioning that compared with the purchase of only 2,000 vehicles in January, the sales volume of new cars in the Beijing Capital Market in January was as high as 45,800. This figure far exceeded the expected target and was also a very dramatic figure.

Su Hui, president of the China Automobile Dealers Association’s tangible automobile market branch, analyzed that there may be several reasons for this: First, the Beijing city’s consumers to purchase car tickets in a foreign country; second, resellers of new vehicles in the surrounding areas; and third, dealers in Beijing Foreign vehicles and issuing foreign invoices. “In December 2010, the Beijing capital had a mega-peak due to limited vehicle rumors. Before the blockage plan was announced, the Beijing auto market had reached a very high level and the market conditions were extremely complex. It is very likely that in this state, it will be December. The sales volume was shifted to January 2011."

A FAW-Volkswagen dealer told the reporter that the vehicles currently delivered in the store are mainly concentrated on vehicles that were previously approved for review, and consumers who received new indicators at the store were still relatively few. He believes that the time limit for car purchases after the Yaohao will be as long as six months, and the market will only be released when it has accumulated to a certain amount.

Su Hui believes that the current consumers who have achieved the indicators are in a game state with the distributors, that is, dealers want to seize these resources, but their mentality is contradictory. They want to offer promotions, and they want to take the opportunity to maintain a rigid price and increase profits. , And because consumers have already obtained precious votes, but also have the right to choose for half a year, it is more desirable that dealers in this state to reduce price promotions.

Yang Zaiqi believes that any country that has stimulated the financial subsidy policy of the auto market will withdraw from the first year of the withdrawal of the automobile sales chain and the year-on-year ratio. In China, it will continue to increase substantially in January, but at the end of the month, the sales of terminal equipment will cool. Already obvious. As dealers accelerated their cash transfer orders in early January, there was one more working day in January this year. Manufacturers added a large amount of inventory to distributors. Dealers also had to stock up with vehicles sold during the Spring Festival. This month, most of them were spit out last year. The sales volume, so the statistical wholesale data is much higher than the actual market. “In January, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles showed a large negative growth, and the wholesale sales were much higher than the retail sales, showing the characteristics of the increase in the inventory period of the decline in the automobile market. The increase in the inventory period lasted longer and the inventory increased. The bigger the market, the greater the decline in the market in the future."

In the interview process of reporters, some old mainstream brand dealers are still optimistic and think that their sales share will be expanded. From the perspective of the number of these brands, it is also possible to ensure profits through services such as maintenance and insurance. However, some non-mainstream joint venture brand dealers have begun to enter an extremely severe period of tension. The anxiety of anxious people has become more apparent in some independent brand dealers.

A BYD dealer in Deyang, Sichuan, told reporters that this year's auto market in Sichuan has been unfavorable, and many dealers’ actual orders have declined in January. “After the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, Sichuan people generally had a mentality that was timely and happy, so after that year, the auto market in Sichuan was continuously blown for two years, and many dealers made money. Originally, the cake had to eat one bite, but these two years were It was almost eaten, and some of it was over-consumption, which also caused us not to be optimistic about the Sichuan auto market this year."

Some people in the industry believe that 2009 and 2010 are also two years of great fanfare of automobile consumption encouragement policies. Good policies have provided consumers with confidence, but from 2011 onwards, small-displacement vehicle purchase tax concessions, trade-in replacements, and car-to-country tripartite The important policies have been cancelled, leaving only 3,000 yuan for energy-saving cars to subsidize a policy. Coupled with Beijing’s policy of blocking traffic on other provinces and cities, and excessive consumption in previous years, many regions’ car sales are overdrawn, 2011 It is inevitable that the auto market will enter the freezing period.

According to the passenger car association’s forecast, the sales and sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles in February will both fall by about 35% month-on-month, while the minibuses will experience negative growth. The large decline in the month-on-month ratio will not be seen in the Chinese auto market, and the auto market will Continue to increase inventory.

Su Hui said that in addition to Beijing and Shanghai, the current domestic major cities do not implement a limited treatment plan, it does not mean that there will be no future. “It is understood that about 14 cities are planning to implement a blocking plan, and it is estimated that there will be some actions after the holiday period. In addition, some major cities across the country are adopting or planning to adopt policies that restrict the entry of vehicles from other places into the urban area. This policy is like Shares of sandstorms that are extremely harmful to the traffic. Conditions should be created to focus on grooming instead of simple administrative restrictions."