At present, the shortage of supply and demand of mineral resources has become an important factor restricting the sustainable development of China's economy. It is of great strategic significance to make full use of "two markets and two kinds of resources", "going out" to carry out geological prospecting, establish an overseas resource development base, and provide a stable and diversified resource supply system for sustainable economic and social development. China's neighboring countries are rich in mineral resources. Many mineral resources occupy an important position in the world. At the same time, they have strong complementarity with China. Therefore, cooperation and development and utilization in the mining industry have broad prospects.

I. Construction of the evaluation index system

According to the principles of importance, difference, independence, systemicity and operability, through rigorous analysis and screening of various location factors affecting the mining investment environment of the target country of investment, reference to existing research results, the content of the target country The following evaluation system was established (Table 1).

Table 1 Table of Indicators for Environmental Assessment of Mineral Resources Investment in China's Peripheral Countries

Second, the setting of the indicator standard

(1) Qualitative indicators. Qualitative indicators include “Chinese-foreign friendship level”, “mining policy” and “humanistic environment”. When quantifying qualitative indicators, the evaluation criteria are based on expert scoring and analogy, and refer to the data indicators of international authoritative institutions such as the United Nations Development Programme to give the final score to achieve quantitative treatment of qualitative indicators.

(2) Quantitative indicators. Quantitative indicators are directly quantifiable indicators. These indicators have data that can be directly queried as a basis for judgment. The first is the statistical analysis of the data of each indicator. In the data source of quantitative indicators, we try our best to make the data source standard and have high authority. The second is to analyze the impact of changes in various indicators on the investment environment of the mining industry studied. Among the indicators analyzed, the larger the index value, the better the investment environment, and the smaller the index value, the better the investment environment.

(3) Dealing with the consistency of indicators. The indicators were processed consistently prior to analysis. The index factors in the evaluation index system constructed in this paper can be divided into positive indicators (ie, the bigger the better the indicators) and the reverse indicators (the smaller the better the indicators). For the forward indicator, we can directly dimension it, and when the dimension is converted to the backward index, it should be converted into a forward indicator and then dimensionless. When the reverse index is converted into a forward indicator, the paper takes the reciprocal of the original value and obtains the corresponding positive indicator value, namely:

If X i is a reverse indicator.

Third, some indicators evaluation criteria

(1) Mineral resources potential index. This potential index should include “the national mineral resource reserves predicted according to the characteristics of metallogenic geological conditions within the territory of a country”. This indicator refers to the values ​​in the Fraser Institute's annual mining report. The degree of mineral resource aggregation is one of the basis of the potential index. It is based on the respondent's answer to the question “in the current policy environment, whether or not to encourage exploration, regardless of whether or not there is jurisdiction over mineral resources. The exploration potential" is given by the experts and then sorted according to the score. In some countries, the mineral resource potential index is not available in the Fraser Institute's annual mining report, and its potential index value is derived using analogy and expert scoring.

(2) Coverage rate of geological mapping at different scales. According to different scales, geophysical and geochemical completion, the scores are based on the basic geological map. The evaluation criteria are as follows:

Scale ≥ 1:250,000 (including 1:50,000, 1:100, 1:200, 1:250,000, etc.), high;

1:250,000>scale ≥1:1 ​​million (including 1:500,000, 1:100, etc.), medium;

The scale is <1:1 million, which is low.

Then, based on expert experience, the score is used to measure the degree of geological work in a country or region. The higher the score, the better the geological work.

(3) Scale of reserves. Based on the proven reserves of the six mineral resources, the market value is further calculated. A larger value indicates a greater value, and the corresponding reserve size is larger.

(4) Cumulative annual output value. It refers to the cumulative annual output value of six minerals ( iron , manganese , copper , aluminum , lead , zinc ) for the decade from 1998 to 2008, used to evaluate the extent of mining development. The greater the value, the higher the degree of exploration and development.

(5) The regime change risk index. It is divided into three levels (the highest risk score is 9), the risk level is 0 to 3 points, the risk level is generally 4 to 6 points, and the risk level is significantly 7 to 9 points.

(6) The degree of friendship between China and foreign countries. This indicator is a qualitative indicator, which is obtained by diplomatic experts. It is mainly based on the traditional friendship and friendship between different countries and China. It is divided into three categories according to the score: friendly (8-10), general (5-7), poor. (0 to 5).

(7) Mining policy. Mining policies include democracy, mining laws and regulations, the safety of mining ownership, and the history of mining nationalization. If the country has limited policy and legal provisions, it is directly indicated by “0”, which means that there is no feasibility of investment in the country. The data range is 0 to 10. The larger the data, the less the mining policy restrictions in the country.

(8) Humanistic environment. Mainly from the religious beliefs, customs, education level and other aspects of the conflict with China, the United Nations Development Programme "Humanities Development Report" in the Human Development Index to comprehensively reflect this indicator. The Human Development Index is a comprehensive indicator of human development and represents the average achievement of the three dimensions of human development: life expectancy (life expectancy at birth), knowledge (adult literacy and average years of schooling), and income ( Per capita GDP calculated by purchasing power parity).

Fourth, the selection of evaluation methods

In the method selection, this paper adopts the combination of analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis, and compares and analyzes. Based on the research needs of this paper, we prefer the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP method), which is based on the advantages of this method. It is the nature, influencing factors and intrinsic relationship of complex decision problems. On the basis of in-depth analysis, the use of less quantitative information to mathematicalize the thinking process of decision-making, thus providing a simple decision-making method for complex decision problems with multiple objectives, multiple criteria or no structural characteristics, especially suitable for direct and accurate decision-making results. The occasion of measurement.

At the same time, taking into account the shortcomings of the AHP analysis method, that is, subjective factors are greatly influenced when determining the weight of the index. We consider and combine another quantitative analysis method - principal component analysis, using dimensionality reduction. The idea is to transform multiple variables into a few unrelated principal components, thus describing the internal structure of the data set and discarding the influence of subjective factors.

Mineral investment environment research is a complex system engineering. It is difficult to explain clearly in one or several ways, and there are many problems to be considered. From a practical point of view, when we choose overseas investment countries or investment projects, we are often influenced by many factors, sometimes it is the influence of a single factor (such as war), making the project difficult to implement. Therefore, we have adopted a comprehensive method. Based on the above two methods, we have made partial adjustments through expert experience in various fields.

V. Evaluation process

Since the comprehensive evaluation system contains many indicators, and each indicator unit is different, some data gaps are large. Therefore, before the comprehensive evaluation calculation, the collected data must first be dimensionless. In this paper, the raw data collected is first standardized by using spss16.0 software, and then comprehensive evaluation is carried out.

When evaluating the scores of the comprehensive mining investment environment in each country, the model used in this paper is:

Z=∑W i ×η ij

In the formula, Z is the final comprehensive evaluation score of each factor of each country; W i is the weight of each index factor; η ij is the standardized data value, thus calculating the comprehensive score of mining investment environment indicators of major countries in China.

Sixth, evaluation results

(1) Analytic hierarchy process

Applying the analytic hierarchy process, experts from 19 countries such as Russia in China were scored, and 19 countries were divided into four grades, and the investment environment was defined as excellent, good, general, and poor. The specific results are shown in Table 2.

Table 2 Classification of comprehensive mining investment environment assessment in 19 countries

(2) Principal component analysis

The results calculated by principal component analysis are shown in Table 3. The calculated results also show some stratification and aggregation.

Table 3 Classification of comprehensive mining investment environment assessment in 19 countries

It can be seen from Table 2 and Table 3 that although there are some differences in the analysis results of the two methods, the whole is relatively close. In the 16 countries of the first three levels, the mining investment environment evaluated by AHP analysis has the same results as the principal component method, and the similarity is 87.5%. Therefore, it can be considered that the results of the analytical calculations objectively reflect the actual situation.

(3) Comprehensive Law

Mining is a basic industry. Mining investment has the characteristics of advanced, high risk, long cycle and slow effect. Considering cultural background, national customs, environmental pressure and people's feelings, comprehensive research believes that Russia and Kazakhstan are comprehensive. The mining investment environment is excellent, and it is an ideal investment target country for China's mining companies to implement the “going out” strategy. Due to the limitations of the Russian policy environment, foreign mineral investment has been limited, but in the long run, it is still the investment of overseas minerals in China. Major countries; Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, the Philippines and other countries have a good level of mining investment environment, which can be used as a partner for mining investment; India is the country with the same mineral resources demand, and its political relationship is more competitive than cooperation. It was transferred to the third level; Iran also transferred it to the third level for political reasons; Nepal, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan have a poorer overall mining investment environment, due to political turmoil, non-continuous domestic policies, and supporting infrastructure. Imperfect, thus saving

Table 4 Table of results of comprehensive mining investment environment evaluation in 19 countries

In short, there are large differences in the mining investment environment in China's neighboring countries. In countries with good investment environment, the corresponding mining investment risks are relatively small, while countries with poor investment environment have higher risks in mining investment. At the same time, it is particularly important to note that the mining investment environment in China's neighboring countries is dynamic. With the development of international politics and economic situation, breakthroughs in geological prospecting theory and technology, and new discoveries in geological prospecting, it is necessary to evaluate the index system. And the evaluation results were adjusted in time.

Special thanks to Deputy Director Che Changbo of the Oil and Gas Resource Strategy Research Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, Deputy Director of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China Geological Survey, Lian Changyun, Chief Engineer of the China Geological Survey Development Research Center Tan Yongjie, Director Xiang Yunchuan, Researcher Shi Junfa, Central South Associate Professor Hu Junhua, Yang Huadong, Lecturer, and Prof. Yu Shufang, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, gave great support and help.

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