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From January to December 2015, the cumulative sales volume of the overall heavy truck market was 550,800 units, a year-on-year decrease of -26%, and a net reduction of nearly 200,000 units compared with the same period of last year. The sales volume of tractors in the heavy truck market accounted for more than 45%, of which the dump truck market experienced the most serious decline, falling by approximately 52%. The dump trucks accounted for only 17%, and the annual sales volume was expected to not exceed 100,000 units; the sales of special vehicles fell the least. The market share is also rising. The author believes that the heavy truck market is the “wind indicator†of the national macro-economic laws and regulations; the “barometer†of the national economy; the “thermometer†of the people’s livelihood, and the trend of the heavy truck market, which can reflect the macro and micro economic environment of the year. Good and bad, fast and slow. The sluggish economy of the macro economy, especially the real economy, caused the growth rate of the heavy-duty truck market to drop by nearly 30% last year. It is expected that the annual manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is also basically the same and lower than the historical level. This shows that investment-based investment represented by infrastructure construction will continue to exist in the future, but with limited efforts, the market share of dump trucks will hardly reach 35%, and China has entered an era dominated by logistics vehicles.
Last year, the operating rates of major, medium, and small-sized projects at the national or local level in China were significantly lower than those in previous years. Investment growth in all industries and industries slowed down, investment in railways, highways, and real estate slowed down, and mining of coal and iron ore took place. Due to the overproduction, the amount of heavy load has dropped, resulting in a significant drop in the sales volume of cargo and dump trucks. As the road transport industry has increasingly imposed heavy fines on arbitrary charges, sales volume of cargo and tractors has fallen. In addition, the inability to phase out yellow-labeled vehicles has also had a certain impact on the sales of heavy-duty trucks.
Since the end of last year, the macro-economy, especially the real economy, has not shown signs of recovery since it is still in a slippery state. Therefore, China is expected to face enormous difficulties and challenges this year. Heavy truck market due to the inertia of last year's slide is too large, it is still difficult to get back to life in the first half of this year, may be in the second half before there may be a "salty fish turned" turning point. These predictions are based on neutral expectations. They are neither optimistic nor pessimistic. We can also get initial confirmation from the annual business annual meeting held by heavy truck companies in recent heavy trucks.
According to the author's more than ten years of experience in heavy-duty truck manufacturers, and according to Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, China National Heavy Duty Truck, FAW Jiefang, Shaanxi Automobile, and joint trucks, etc., at their respective business conferences, they forecast that this year or the next few years will be the heavy truck market. The trend is cautious and more optimistic. Therefore, comprehensive forecasts predict that the production and sales volume of the heavy truck market this year will be around 600,000 vehicles. In the next few years, it will maintain a sales volume of 600,000-700,000 vehicles, and will become the world’s highest level of production and sales. In the past few years, over one million or nearly one million vehicles were the irrational and unconventional results of the stimulus policies introduced by the country to stimulate domestic demand, rather than the market operation behavior. In summary, the expected heavy truck market is expected to be judged this year and looks forward to the following:
Truck and tractor market <br> <br> with the social market "Thirteen Five" during the segment is getting smaller, will increase promote the rapid development of transportation logistics. In particular, the amended GB1589 mandatory national standard has expanded the truck's load quality and vehicle dimensions. The amount of goods that a truck pulls at a time will increase, and the overload situation may completely change. In addition, the technology of suspension and transportation and car networking will be perfected day by day, and the problem of asymmetric logistics information will be solved gradually. What follows is the demand for centralized logistics transportation. Sub-market efficient logistics vehicles will become the mainstream. At the same time, this year's tractor exports may also increase opportunities.
It is expected that the sales of low-end heavy-duty trucks will decline in 2016, and the high-end and high-end products will show a rapid upward trend. The high-end models all have high horsepower, multiple gears, small speed ratios, more electronic configurations, and distinctive features. , high comfort and so on. Such as FAW Jiefang J6P pilot version, Dongfeng Tianlong set sail version, China National Heavy Duty Truck T7H, Foton Daimler Auman GTL Super Edition, Shaanxi Auto DeLong X3000, Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile Dragon H7, SAIC Iveco Hongyanjie Lion Changtu 2.0. Mid-to-high-end tractors such as Guangzhou Automobile Hino 700 and U480 will continue to play a leading role in the pursuit of efficient and rapid road transport, and will surely usher in the era of high-powered tractors. It is expected that in the coming years, A number of cutting-edge products went offline.
Tipper truck market <br> <br> basis for the fourth quarter of last year, the National Salvation, and drive the economy, the introduction of relevant ministries and local government issued a series of national investment projects run, cement, steel, coal and other The industry also showed a warming trend due to increased investment. It is expected that the pulling effect on the heavy truck industry will begin to appear in the second quarter of this year. The dump truck market may begin to recover in the second half of the year and sales volume will gradually increase. With the start of construction of a number of urban projects, such as the construction of new subways, expansion of airports, high-speed railways, highways, and urbanization and demolitions, they will all play an active role in the increase of the market for dump trucks, construction vehicles, and muck trucks. Its realization is in a contrarian positive growth. In addition, the "One Belt and One Road" strategic advancement of one of the Chinese dreams may also stimulate the export of engineering dump trucks. "The state now emphasizes 'capacity cooperation, production output,' and the 'Belt and Road' initiative will stimulate multilateral economic and trade exchanges, which will in turn help the development of logistics around railways and ports and boost the demand for logistics transportation vehicles.
At the same time, as the elimination of yellow-label vehicles will continue to increase, this will create market demand for the subdivision of port tractors, trucks, and muck trucks. In addition, the international strategic policies of heavy trucks going out and the large demand for military vehicles will directly or indirectly stimulate heavy trucks.
13L "gold displacement" engine will become the mainstream product <br> <br> tractor market in the last year, a relatively large displacement of 13 liters, 500 horsepower tractor has become a major high-end heavy truck enterprises competing debut of products and become This year and the next five years will be the flagship product. Such as Shaanxi Automobile Weichai WP13 liters engine, Xi'an Cummins ISM 13 liters Shaanxi Automobile X3000 Gold Edition, FAW Jiefang J6 Series Xichai 6DM313 liter 550 hp engine, China National Heavy Duty Truck MAN Decca C7HMC13 engine, Dongfeng Cummins ISZ13 litre engine Tianlong flagship, etc. And so on, bids are rushed to the market and large-capacity heavy trucks will become mainstream products in the market.
The heavy horsepower heavy truck is not only a market demand, but also a result of the convergence of national policy guidance with the international truck market. Large-horsepower heavy-duty trucks carry the standard transportation, the average speed is increased, the vehicle failure rate is reduced, and the operating efficiency is naturally improved while the use cost is also reduced. In order to ensure the efficiency of transportation, vehicles must have enough power to run in a fuel-efficient state, which requires high-efficiency, low-cost transportation. Only large-capacity heavy trucks can meet these requirements. In addition, with the implementation of the new regulation GB1589, the development trend of heavy trucks to large horsepower will become more apparent, and the proportion of sales volume will also continue to increase. In the future, the suspension of transport and the double-dragging of transport will also be effectively and timely developed, which is more conducive to the improvement of transport efficiency.
At the same time, the outlook for gas-powered heavy trucks is also promising. With the increase in the cost of fuel in the transportation industry, the economic advantages of gas-powered vehicles have become increasingly evident. The natural gas engine is mainly designed and developed on the basis of the original diesel engine. Its reliability has been effectively ensured. It has the characteristics of strong power, good economy, and high reliability. It is the best choice for trucks, dump trucks, and standard load tractors. power. With the adjustment of the product structure of China heavy truck companies and the improvement in the quality of gas-powered heavy truck products, it will surely occupy a greater market share.
"Internet +" (Telematics) concept <br> <br> past two decades, China's logistics industry logistics enterprises are turning from collective private economy; and to the present, due to the advances in information technology, economic restructuring and other factors To promote, users begin to shift from the individual to intensification and organization. The new demands of these intensive customer groups will also affect the changes in the logistics market. The rapid development of express logistics industry has given rise to the demand for large-volume, high-quality transport vehicles. Cold chain logistics and hazardous chemicals logistics have become new hot spots. Logistics companies have expanded from a single-phase service area to a one-stop integrated service area.
Against this backdrop, major heavy-duty truck manufacturers have launched the concept of “Internet Plus†and attached them to actual combat practices. They have achieved good social and economic benefits. This has played a significant role in pre-sales, sales and after-sales services. The role. For example, Shaanxi Automobile has launched the "Tianxingjian" and "Wheel Rolling" platforms; CNHTC has launched Smart Mobile's mobile APP application; the "Liberation Butler" APP launched by FAW Jiefang will open up end-user vehicles, maintenance and repairs. Many shortcomings in road rescue and other links, as well as communication channels between dealers and vehicle companies, are intended to broaden marketing channels, enhance user stickiness and so on, and establish a new era of marketing model.
August 28, 2019