According to data released by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, domestic crude oil processing volume reached 31.188 million tons in May, a record high, up 10.7% year-on-year, and an increase of 6% from the previous month; product oil output (total of gasoline, diesel and kerosene) 19.393 million tons, an increase of 16.7% year-on-year, a substantial increase of 10 percentage points from the previous month.

Operating rate rose to 84%

Throughout the entire month of May this year, international crude oil prices rose by about 30%, becoming the largest monthly increase in 10 years. Although unit price is harder than that of the same period in 2008, the chain growth rate is alarming.

In May, rising oil prices drove oil and gas production. The country’s crude oil output was 16,032,000 tons for the month, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%; natural gas production was 6.72 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. At the same time, the previously released customs data showed that crude oil imports in May increased 5.5% year-on-year, reaching the second highest level in history, and rose by 5.7% month-on-month.

Corresponding to the significant increase in crude oil production and import volume, the growth of crude oil processing volume and refined oil production in May significantly accelerated, and the operating rate of the refining industry increased from 79% in April to about 84% in May, and the refining industry output value. It was down 10% year-on-year and 12.4% month-on-month.

With the end of the overhaul period for some refineries, Dow Jones expects that the volume of crude oil processed in June will also hit new highs.

Inventory rebounded

Professionals pointed out that, based on the general industry, crude oil prices will continue to be high in the short term, even reaching a high of 80 US dollars, and the expected increase in the price of refined oil products will continue to increase, so that circulation will increase the intensity of purchase and storage. The stock of refined oil at the end of May has rebounded from that in April.

According to statistics, the sales of refined oil products continued to rise in May, reaching 18.2125 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year and an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous period, of which diesel sales volume was 11.945 million tons, which was a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% and a month-on-year increase of 2.0%; gasoline sales was 5,607,300 tons , an increase of 2.9% year-on-year, and an increase of 3.6% from the previous quarter. At the end of May, China's refined oil inventories increased by 36.1% year-on-year, 2.1% month-on-month, of which diesel stocks fell by 4.9% month-on-month; gasoline inventories increased by 12.3% month-on-month.

Unreasonable production capacity still increases

Of the 62 (class) petroleum and chemical products that the association has focused on tracking, the output of May increased by 68% year-on-year, and the decline of the varieties accounted for 32%, which generally continued the good trend last month. The industry's total output value was 538.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, and the decline further decreased, with a year-on-year increase of 7%.

However, the association pointed out that the overall demand in the petrochemical market has not changed, and the trend of declining overall prices has not been reversed.

According to statistics from the railway sector, the nation’s oil shipments decreased by 10.7% year-on-year in May; chemical fertilizers and pesticides shipments decreased by 18.6% year-on-year and 19.8% year-on-year; chemical product shipments decreased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month; this reflects the current overall status of the petrochemical market. Demand is weak. At the same time, the prices of chemical products are still generally down, and the price index for chemical products released by the National Bureau of Statistics in May was 88.55, down 0.63 points month-on-month.

In addition, the operating rate of certain industrial installations is still seriously insufficient. In the same month, the ethylene utilization rate was approximately 85.1%, which was approximately 7 percentage points lower than the previous month; the operating rate of the soda ash industry was approximately 82.1%; the operating rate of the caustic soda industry was approximately 79%; The operating rate of the industrial installations was 68.8%; the operating rate of PVC plants was approximately 58%; the operating rate of the methanol industry was approximately 40.6%; and the operating rate of the phosphate fertilizer industry was approximately 50%.

The association pointed out that under the promotion of coal chemical industry, the current pace of energy expansion in the methanol industry is still accelerating; the capacity of “two alkalis” is also continuing to increase; in the first five months, the investment in phosphate fertilizer industry has increased alarmingly by 112% compared to the same period of last year. -In April increased by 26.7 percentage points. These conditions undoubtedly made the structural adjustment of the industry worse.

July 01, 2018