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However, the foundation for the recovery of the steel industry is not solid, and the continued rise in prices of domestic steel products has begun to deteriorate sharply since mid-August. The domestic steel market has thus entered the second adjustment this year. On September 25, the domestic comprehensive steel price index was 102.65 points, which was 11.75% lower than the highest level of 116.32 points on August 7 of the year. From a macro perspective, China’s economy continues to maintain a steady upward trend, and the intensity of demand for steel products has not been significantly weakened. The main reason for the domestic steel market’s roller coaster market is that the growth of supply is faster than the increase in demand.
According to the requirements of the “Iron and Steel Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Planâ€, the target of crude steel production this year is controlled at 460 million tons. However, due to the rise of steel prices in the previous period, domestic steel production capacity began to be released in large quantities, and output was steadily rising. From January to August, the cumulative output of crude steel in China was close to 370 million tons, and the average daily steel production was 1.5212 million tons, which was 11.24% higher than the average annual output of 1.367 million tons last year, equivalent to 555 million tons of steel production in the whole year. Last year, China’s crude steel production capacity was 660 million tons, demand was only about 500 million tons, and about a quarter of steel and finished products were dependent on the international market. In the first half of 2009, the industry completed a total investment of RMB 140.55 billion. Currently, the project's crude steel production capacity is 58 million tons, which means that China's steel production capacity will exceed 700 million tons next year, and the problem of excess steel production capacity will be further highlighted.
Reducing the excess capacity of the steel industry as soon as possible is of great significance to maintaining the stability of the steel market and achieving the healthy development of the Chinese steel industry. In September of this year, the State Council approved the “Several Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Duplicate Construction and Leading the Healthy Development of Industries†issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments, among which the steel industry has become the primary adjustment target as a key industry with excess capacity.
The steel industry has strong marketability and global resource allocation characteristics. To solve the problem of overcapacity in the steel industry, it is necessary to give full play to the role of the market mechanism, supplement the necessary regulatory measures, and take a two-pronged approach in market and policy. This time, the State Council approved the “Several Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Duplicate Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of Industriesâ€, which is to make full use of the drastic mechanism of the current sharp adjustment of the steel market, so that market adjustments and policy adjustments can be coordinated. mutual improvement. On the one hand, the market adjustment started in August will not only help squeeze the market “bubble†and release market risks, but also provide the industry with an opportunity to eliminate backward production capacity. On the other hand, the policy adjustment at the end of September has appeared for a period of time in the past. The more weeding out of the steel production capacity, the more "strange circle" put forward an institutionalized solution. The Opinion clearly states that it is necessary to give play to the basic role of the market in allocating resources and comprehensively use laws, economics, technologies, standards, and necessary administrative means to coordinate industrial, environmental protection, land, and financial policies so as to prevent overcapacity and guide the healthy development of the industry. The resultant force.
Controlling and eliminating backward production capacity is one of the most important things for the Chinese steel industry for a long period of time now and in the future. The adjustment mechanism combining market mechanism and macroeconomic regulation formed in the third quarter of this year will undoubtedly advance our country’s goal of becoming a powerful steel country. It is of great significance.
At present, some economic indicators in the steel industry show some signs of recovery. From January to September, domestic steel production totaled 501.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The monthly output of steel exceeded 60 million tons in June; in August, it produced 61.982 million tons of steel, and in September it produced 61.16 million tons of steel. From January to August, the apparent steel consumption amounted to 438.312 million tons, an increase of 18.77% over the same period of the previous year, of which the apparent steel consumption in August was 61,493,200 tons. In the first quarter, large and medium-sized steel mills suffered losses of 3.432 billion yuan. In the second quarter, large and medium-sized steel mills earned 3.313 billion yuan. In the third quarter, thanks to the rise in steel prices in June and July, the profitability of steel mills was greater than that of the previous period. improve.
May 10, 2021